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Young Jordanians Returning from Jihad Pick Up Their Lives, But Dream of Islamic State
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
AP
Categories: Contemporary Issues

The three young Jordanians didn't start out as extremists. They grew up in mainstream Muslim families. But they grew increasingly angry at what they felt were Western injustices against Muslims — and decided to join the jihad in Syria and Yemen.

Now they are home from war, trying to live ordinary lives, knowing they are under heavy surveillance by Jordanian security agencies. Two brothers, Omar and Abdullah Mansour, are back in their father's house. A third returnee found a part-time teaching job and plans to marry.

But they abide by their hardline vision of Islam and are confident it is gaining popularity.

The Islamic State group could one day rule the region, said the teacher, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of trouble with Jordanian authorities. Its radical fighters are the defenders of Sunni Muslims against rival Shiites and the West, he said.

"They broke the head of America," he said, sitting in Maan's Great Mosque after noon prayers one day in late October. "They have taken back the rights of the Sunni people."

The bearded man — who sported a black vest over a gray robe, typical attire for ultraconservatives known as Salafis — said he grew up in a middle class family that was not particularly devout.

He said he was first drawn to jihadi Salafis while studying business administration at Maan's university. At the time, he said, he was driven by anger over what he felt was oppression of Muslims by U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He slipped into Syria this year. While he wanted to join Islamic State fighters, he ended up with their rival, the Nusra Front, al-Qaida's branch in the country. He spent seven months with Nusra fighters in a three-bedroom house in a town in southern Syria.

He said he gave religion classes to Nusra fighters and sometimes to fighters from the Western-backed Free Syrian Army — "the ones sympathetic to Islam."

Omar Mansour was in seventh grade when he first heard jihadi preachers on the Internet.

"I would listen to sermons about the situation of the Muslim nation, how important jihad is for God," he said in the spacious living room of his father's home.

Mansour, 23, said he repeatedly tried to join the rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad, but was sent back by Jordanian border guards.

He finally sneaked across the border in late 2013. Like the teacher, he had hoped to join the Islamic State fighters but ended up with the Nusra Front because they operate closer to the Jordanian border.

He said in hindsight, it was preferable. "The problem with Islamic State is that they have killed Muslims." But, he added, the Islamic State group is becoming more popular than al-Qaida because of its territorial gains.

Mansour said he saw combat and returned to Jordan about two months later for the birth of his daughter, Samar. He was detained and questioned for six weeks, and eventually got a job with a phosphate company.

His father Mahmoud, 48, said he was proud of his son. "I welcomed it," he said of Omar's jihad days.

Omar's younger brother, 21-year-old Abdullah, was in prison in Yemen at the time, the family said.

Abdullah said he had dropped out of the local university in 2012 and boarded a plane to Yemen to fight in the ranks of al-Qaida. But, he said, he was caught by Yemeni security forces on the first day and spent two years in prison. He was released in February.

The return hasn't been easy. Abdullah hasn't been able to find work because he can't get the required security clearance for a government job.

After returning to Jordan in July, the teacher was also detained and interrogated for two months, then had to sign a pledge he would not promote Islamic State ideas. He was also warned he would be under surveillance.

He is treading carefully. He wants to start a family, maybe get a master's degree, and doesn't want to get arrested again.

"The Jordanian government is vigilant, and I don't think the U.S. and Israel would let this country fall to IS."

But, he said, growing economic pressure "might lead the country to an explosion."

Saudi Arabias Oil War Against Iran and Russia
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
NY Post
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

This week, oil fell through the price floor of $60 a barrel and gas at my local filling station was $2.26 a gallon.

That’s great news for commuters and almost every business, but wonderfully bad news for our ugliest enemies.

If oil prices remain low through next year, the effect on rogue governments, from the Russian Federation to Venezuela, will go from damaging to devastating.

But Western economies (and China’s) stand to benefit, with cheap oil possibly tickling Europe’s snoozing markets awake. Even most underdeveloped states will get a welcome break.

This price plunge has been driven by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s dominant power. While it’s true that part of Riyadh’s actions respond to the energy renaissance in North America, the greater motivation is breaking Iran’s will.

The Saudis believe they can no longer rely on the US to contain Tehran’s imminent nuclear threat, so they’re out to do what our lukewarm sanctions couldn’t.

There’s no love lost between the Saudis and the Russians, either. The Saudis want the Assad regime in Syria to go. Moscow props it up.

The Saudis aren’t doing any of this to help us, but it helps us just the same. Now the key issue is: How long will prices stay low?

Markets can be unpredictable, but an emerging global glut of oil, decreasing demand and greater efficiencies suggest that petroleum products should remain relatively cheap — with fluctuations — for the next few years.

That’s good news for democracies and free markets, but a nightmare for dictators everywhere.

Here are the key losers — and winners.

The Targets

Iran

Tehran had learned to live with Western sanctions. But oil has been its lifeline. And to balance the books, oil has to sell between $135 and $140 dollars per barrel. Good luck with that, Supreme Leader!

With the barrel price at barely 40 percent of Iran’s requirement, the economy’s going to hemorrhage. Iran’s leaders will be under far greater pressure to compromise on the nuclear weapons — unless we keep easing sanctions for nothing in return. This is the last chance for negotiations to bring results.

The fascinating angle here is that Saudi Arabia’s doing more for Israel’s security than the Obama administration’s been willing to do. Common enemies generate unexpected — if unadmitted — alliances.

Russia

The price collapse could not have come at a worse time for Bad Vlad Putin. The Russian president needs an oil price around $100 a barrel to prop up what’s become a wartime economy.

Oil and gas provide up to a third of budget revenue and compose two-thirds of exports.

Sanctions imposed over Putin’s aggression have gnawed at Russia’s economy, but this price drop bites deep: The ruble has crashed, Russian bonds are pathetic, and foreign reserves are bleeding.

While Russians will put up with harder times than Westerners will, Putin’s made extravagant commitments (bet he’d like to have back the $50 billion he squandered on corrupt Olympic construction).

The world’s fave bare-chested bully had embarked on a massive arms buildup, with a hi-tech $5 billion command center just unveiled. But Putin’s visions of military resurgence are becoming unaffordable

He also made election promises to improve Russia’s wretched health-care system. Instead, he’s firing health-care workers and shuttering hospitals.

He promised higher living standards, but now the average Ivan’s feeling squeezed. And Putin faces enormous costs in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, two booby-prize welfare states, with the latter shot to ruins.

Putin’s popularity remains high. For now. The gravest worry is that, with his back to the wall, he’ll play the Mother Russia card and attack again.

Iraq

A worker walks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, southeast of Baghdad.Photo: Reuters

Iraq has nothing to offer the world but oil. And Baghdad needs to fund a survival struggle against Islamic State militants.

The Saudis don’t like the Islamic State caliphate claims, but they have no sympathy with Baghdad’s Shia-dominated, Iran-aligned government, either. Don’t expect price rises for Iraq’s sake.

The problem is that we’ll end up paying more of the battle bill for Baghdad’s pretense (and our State Department’s fetish) that Iraq can be kept intact. The conquests made by Islamic State terrorists aren’t the cause of Iraq’s troubles, just one more symptom.

The Winners

USA, USA!

Although some energy players will suffer from lower prices and we’ll see a wave of corporate consolidation, the oil-price drop’s great news for American consumers, businesses and even, in the longer term, our military.

An economy that had begun to recover — despite Washington — is getting another vitamin shot, while working-family budgets get a break.

The Saudi strategy also aims to hurt our burgeoning energy industry, such as the shale oil extraction in North Dakota. But it won’t derail it. And the overall effect on our economy will be positive.

Perhaps the greatest benefit, though, is that the oil-price plummet is doing what the Obama administration lacked the guts to do: It’s smacking down our enemies.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton didn’t reset relations with Moscow, but bargain-basement oil prices might. Iran may have to give up its dreams of nuclear hegemony in the Middle East.

And with the exception of China, almost every major state that benefits from lower oil prices, from Japan to India, is either an ally or neutral.

Pursuing its own interests, Saudi Arabia may have rescued our failed foreign policy.

China

A worker examines a pumpjack at a PetroChina oil field in China.Photo: Reuters

The world’s second-largest energy consumer (after the USA) and dirt-poor in domestic oil and gas reserves, China had been on track to spend half a trillion dollars a year on oil-and-gas imports.

If petroleum-product prices remain low, that figure could be cut in half. Cheaper oil and gas also offer China another path to reduce its massive pollution, much of which comes from low-quality, internally produced coal. China’s fantastic growth rates had been slipping, but lower oil prices will help soften any fall.

India

The drop in energy-import costs comes as a timely blessing. Once-robust growth rates have fallen by 60 percent and India must spend massively to import three-fourths of the oil it consumes.

Lower energy costs should help New Delhi sustain GDP growth, if at a less-torrid pace than in the past decade. And the drop in prices makes the gas pipeline Russia wants to foist on the region less attractive.

Mexico

A decade ago, such a price collapse would have devastated Mexico’s then-oil-dependent economy. But diversification, deregulation and smart contracting on options markets, should see Mexico’s economy through at least the next year without a major impact from lower oil prices.

If, however, oil prices remain low for years to come, Mexico’s economy will suffer. A full third of government revenue comes from petroleum sales and, even now, oil accounts for 15 percent of exports (behind assembled goods).

A sharp downturn in Mexico’s economy while our own economy booms guarantees more illegal immigration.

Canada

“Woe, Canada?” Or just, “Whoa, Canada!” Sharply lower oil prices make the exploitation of Canada’s tar-sands deposits less viable — a grave disappointment to budget wonks in Ottawa — but Canada’s diversified and robust economy should weather the sectoral crisis: One industry’s loss is the gain of several others.

Some localities will be hit hard (just as in the “lower 48”), but North America still looks a great deal brighter economically than leftists around the world have warned for a century.

Collateral Damage

Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro waves next to First Lady Cilia Flores.Photo: Getty Images

Even before the oil-price crash, Venezuela’s economy was literally wiped out — with no toilet paper on sale. There are shortages of everything from flour and milk to diapers. Once the richest South American country on a per capita basis, a decade and a half of socialism has wrecked Venezuela’s oil industry and left its economy gasping.

Capital flight, party cronyism, crippling price controls and the staggering corruption that always marks leftist utopias have left the state with a single functioning institution — the secret police (trained and bolstered by Cubans).

Heir to the late President Hugo Chavez’s “Chavismo” (the real voodoo economics), hapless President Nicolas Maduro’s as incompetent as his mentor, but lacks his charisma. Naturally, he blames everything on the Yanquis.

If oil prices stay down, the government in Caracas will go down. But it won’t be pretty. And the economy will take decades to rebuild.

Brazil

With its big, diversified economy, Brazil should be able to weather the loss of oil revenue. But the current socialist government’s hooked on energy income to shore up creaking social programs and cushion the economy from the effects of massive corruption.

And the country’s energy industry is a mess. Brazil will survive, but not thrive, while oil prices stay low.

Nigeria

With reform efforts crumbling and Boko Haram rampaging in the north, Nigeria now faces a looming budget crisis. In Africa’s most-populous country, three-fourths of government revenue, a full third of the economy and 90 percent of exports flow from oil.

The price collapse is terrible news for a country that never made sense, with its desolate Muslim north and oil-endowed Christian south. If there’s one nominal ally we should worry about with oil prices so low, it’s Nigeria.

Russia Threatens Response to Sanctions
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
The Korea Herald
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

MOSCOW (AFP) ― Russia responded angrily on Saturday to news that U.S. senators had passed a bill calling for fresh sanctions against Moscow and the supply of lethal military aid to Ukraine.

“Undoubtedly, we will not be able to leave this without a response,” deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax news agency ahead of a meeting between the Russian and U.S. foreign ministers.

The Senate bill ― dubbed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act ― must still be approved by the White House, which has so far been reluctant to provide direct military assistance to Ukraine for fear of being drawn into a proxy war with Russia.

Ryabkov blamed “anti-Russian moods” in the United States for the bill passed on Friday, which calls for additional sanctions against Russia and the delivery of up to $350 million worth of U.S. military hardware to Ukraine.

The eight-month conflict between government forces and pro-Russian separatists has left at least 4,634 dead and 10,243 wounded, while displacing more than 1.1 million people, according to new figures released by the United Nations.

Trucks from a Russian aid convoy carrying banners reading “Humanitarian help from Russian Federation” drive near Donetsk, Ukraine, Friday. (EPA-Yonhap)


It also threatens fresh sanctions against Russia, whose economy is crumbling under previous rounds of Western sanctions and a collapse in oil prices.

Kiev lawmakers have hailed the bill as a “historic decision.” They have long been pressing the West to provide military support to their beleaguered army, but have so far received only non-lethal equipment.

The controversy is likely to come up Sunday when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Rome. However, Ryabkov said that “the main focus at their 17th meeting this year would be on the Middle East.”

A State Department official confirmed to AFP that the meeting would be Sunday after Washington had initially said it was set for Monday.

A tentative cease-fire has been in place along the frontline in eastern Ukraine since Tuesday, and fighting has been greatly reduced despite occasional breaches.

The Ukrainian army on Saturday reported 11 attacks on its positions in the past 24 hours but no one was killed or wounded.

It also said a drone was spotted over Mariupol, the last major town in the southeast under its control.

Ukraine has been worried for months that the Russia-backed separatists will launch an offensive on Mariupol in a bid to build a corridor between the Russian border and the Crimean peninsula, a Ukrainian region which was annexed by Moscow in March.

Around the airport in Donetsk ― site of some of the fiercest fighting in recent months ― “the night was rough,” Maxim, a volunteer soldier with the right-wing Pravy Sektor group, said.

“Snipers fired on us and explosions were coming from the airport. But everything is calm this morning,” he said.

Ukraine announced Friday it would bolster its army next year by conscripting another 40,000 soldiers, training 10,500 new professionals and doubling its military budget.

Meanwhile in Kiev, efforts by the artistic community to rise above the international conflict fell flat when the ballet school rejected charity money raised by Moscow’s Bolshoi Theatre, it emerged Saturday.

Prima ballerina Svetlana Zakharova organized a special gala at the Bolshoi last week to raise money for her old school in Kiev, but the cash was turned down when the Kiev State Ballet School learned that she had supported Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

“The Ukrainian artists who participated in the concert appear to not be aware that the Russian dancer S. Zakharova signed a letter supporting the politics of (Russian President) Vladimir Putin in Crimea,” wrote the school’s director Ivan Doroshenko in a letter published on the Culture Ministry’s website.

“Otherwise, they would never have agreed to take part in this provocative farce.”

The Crimean peninsula was annexed by Russia in March after a referendum that was heavily criticized by Ukraine and the West.

PM: Palestinian State will Lead Islamists to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
INN
Categories: The Nation Of Israel

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu vows to fight foreign pressure to withdraw from Judea-Samaria ahead of Kerry meeting in Rome.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed US Secretary of State John Kerry's upcoming talks in Rome on Sunday, during opening remarks for his weekly Cabinet meeting.

"Tomorrow I will leave for Rome to meet with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and US Secretary of State John Kerry," he said. "I will tell them that Israel, to a large degree, stands as a solitary island against the waves of Islamic extremism that are washing over the entire Middle East."

"Until now we have successfully withstood and repelled these attacks and now we also stand against the possibility of a diplomatic assault, i.e. an attempt to compel us – by means of UN decisions – to withdraw to the 1967 lines within two years," Netanyahu continued. "This will lead to Islamic extremists to the suburbs of Tel Aviv and to the heart of Jerusalem."

"We will not allow this," he vowed. "We will strongly and responsibly rebuff this. Let there be no doubt, this will be rejected."

Let the Headlines Speak
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
From the internet
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Iranian Guman Dead in Sydney
THREE DEAD IN BLOODY END TO SYDNEY SIEGE: Two hostages die and Muslim extremist gunned down as police storm Martin Place café with assault rifles and stun grenades moments after people fled.  

What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano actually erupted?
If the supervolcano underneath Yellowstone National Park ever had another massive eruption, it could spew ash for thousands of miles across the United States, damaging buildings, smothering crops, and shutting down power plants. It'd be a huge disaster. But that doesn't mean we should all start freaking out.

Rabid She-Wolf Discovered in Golan
A rabid she-wolf was discovered yesterday in the Golan and has not been caught yet. The large wolf is described as being light brown and dark brown in color.  

Agreement reached over United Nations Climate Talks in Lima for Paris Pact
Climate negotiators in Lima have finally come on some ground of consortium in establishing a compromise deal that has set the wheels in motion for a global pact in Paris next year. Moreover, they have also rejected in unison the extensive cut in emissions of greenhouse gases that were initially planned.  

Rick Warren’s Call for Christians to Unite With Catholics, ‘Holy Father’ Raising Concerns
Rick Warren is calling for Christians to unite with Roman Catholics and “Pope Francis,” who Warren recently referred to as the “Holy Father”—a move that is raising concerns among Christians nationwide and is resulting in calls for Warren to repent.  

Fed faces big decision over a few choice words
Federal Reserve officials will decide this week whether to make a critical change to their policy statement that would widen the door for interest rate hikes next year and effectively bet the United States will continue to shine in a gloomy global economy.  

Jeb Bush email release stokes talk of run
Jeb Bush said he will release 250,000 emails from his two terms in office and write an eBook outlining his governing philosophy during an interview aired Sunday. The moves have set the political sphere atwitter with speculation he’s closer than ever to deciding to run for president in 2016.  

Strong eruption and major pyroclastic flow observed at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia
Darwin VAAC reported a high level eruption of Indonesian Sinabung volcano on December 14, 2014. Aviation Color Code was briefly set to Red and later downgraded to Orange as the eruption became less active.  

Liberate the Temple Mount for Israel's Survival
Arab spokesmen were so skillful and able to manipulate history that today the UN, Europe, America and the chattering classes, which have no religion at all, are all reinforcing the Arab claim that any who died on the Temple Mount were martyred defenders of holy places, mowed down by savage, unprovoked “Israeli settlers”.  

Australian Jews 'Under Lockdown'
Jewish community's security arm raises the threat level to “severe” after a terrorist went into a Sydney Chocolate shop and took hostages.  

Meretz chief Gal-On calls on Netanyahu to back Palestinian statehood bid at UN
"Bilateral negotiations should be held between two equal governments," Gal-On said. For the last five years, she said, "Netanyahu has initiated destructive diplomatic policies that have isolated Israel."  

Multiple earthquakes shake Oklahoma, including magnitude 4.3
The U.S. Geological Survey has recorded six earthquakes in Oklahoma, including one of magnitude of 4.3.  

3.0 magnitude earthquake strikes near Lenior
LENOIR, N.C. — The U.S. Geological Survey confirmed that an earthquake centered about nine miles north of Lenoir struck early Monday morning. The earthquake's magnitude was measured at 3.0 and was almost 10 miles deep.  

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES
NOAA forecasters have raised the odds of an M-class solar flare today to 55%. This is in response to the emergence of several new sunspots, especially fast-growing AR2242.  

Magnitude-3.6 quake shakes area around San Joaquin
A small earthquake has struck central California but no damage or injuries are reported.  

U.N. talks agree building blocks for new-style climate deal in 2015
About 190 nations agreed on Sunday the building blocks of a new-style global deal due in 2015 to combat climate change amid warnings that far tougher action will be needed to limit increases in global temperatures. Under the deal reached in Lima, governments will submit national plans for reining in greenhouse gas emissions by an informal deadline of March 31, 2015...  

Cairo bathhouse raid spreads fear in Egyptian gay community
Egypt’s government has aggressively cracked down on Islamist and liberal opponents over the past year. Now officials are increasingly targeting another group: gay people. Police raided a public bathhouse in Cairo this month and arrested at least two dozen men, parading them half-naked in front of television cameras before hauling them off to prison.  

Israel-Palestinians: Kerry meets Lavrov in Rome
US Secretary of State John Kerry has met his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Rome on the eve of talks with the Israeli prime minister. Mr Lavrov opened the talks at the US embassy with a call to work together to prevent any further deterioration in the situation in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet Mr Kerry as EU states push for a deal on Palestinian statehood.  

Australia's budget deficit to widen by A$10bn
Australia's government has said it expects the nation's deficit to grow to $40.4bn Australian dollars ($33.2bn; £21.2bn) in the 12 months to June. Earlier in the year, the deficit for the period had been forecast to come in at A$29.8bn. The country's treasurer, Joe Hockey, said falling prices for key export commodities had hurt the economy.  

EU says Turkish media crackdown will harm relations
The EU and US have warned Turkey that its latest crackdown on free press will harm relations. The EU’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, and its enlargement commissioner, Johannes Hahn, said on Sunday (14 December) the “operation goes against the European values and standards Turkey aspires to be part of”.  

Hundreds of Chinese said fighting alongside Islamic State in Middle East
About 300 Chinese people are fighting alongside the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Monday, a rare tally that is likely to fuel worry in China that militants pose a threat to security. China has expressed concern about the rise of Islamic State in the Middle East, nervous about the effect it could have on its Xinjiang region.  

Israel’s Gas Offers Lifeline for Peace
THE TAMAR PLATFORM, Israel — Alarms rang out across the Tamar natural gas platform off the coast of Israel. The Israeli navy had detected smoky signs that a rocket might have been fired by Hamas from the shores of Gaza. As a voice over the loudspeaker warned to take cover, the crew raced up the metal stairs to a small gym that doubles as an air raid shelter.  

Hostages held in Sydney cafe, forced to hold Islamic flag in window
SYDNEY - Dozens of hostages were trapped inside a central Sydney cafe on Monday, with local television showing some being forced to hold up a black flag with white Arabic writing in the window, raising fears of an attack linked to Islamic militants.  

Going from bad to worse
The world is totally committed to the two-state solution. European country after country is passing non-binding resolutions to recognize Palestine in principle. The parameters of the deal which have been set in stone, notwithstanding that all issues are to be decided by negotiations, are the ’67 lines plus swaps and the division of Jerusalem. Never mind that such a deal is not good enough for the Arabs. Hamas rejects it outright.  

Parents angry after school tells 13-year-olds they can have sex, choose gender
Students at one northern California high school are learning more than just the birds and the bees. Along with local area groups, some parents are irate that their children’s sex ed class at Acalanes High School in Lafayette is being taught by employees of Planned Parenthood without their prior knowledge. They are also fuming over the methods and materials being used, including a checklist that asks students if they are “ready for sex” and another worksheet that describes how to give and obtain consent, as well as a diagram that uses a "genderbread" person for lessons in gender identity.  

The Bogeyman has entered the nursery
In the nightmare world progressives are designing for civil society, little tots are no longer your little tots. They are government-sought human resources to be raised as tomorrow’s anarchists. “On Wednesday, the White House Summit on Early Education will unveil nearly $1 billion in new “investments” to “expand access to high-quality early childhood education to every child in America” from “birth and continuing to age 5.”  

Russian military jet in near-crash with passenger plane
A Russian military jet nearly collided with a commercial passenger airplane in international airspace near southern Sweden on Friday, the Swedish authorities said, but Russia insisted on Sunday that its jet had kept at a safe distance.  

Turkey media arrests: Mogherini leads EU criticism
Top European Union officials have sharply criticised a mass arrest of media representatives in Turkey. Foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini and the commissioner heading EU enlargement talks said the arrests went "against European values". At least 24 people were arrested in police raids on a leading newspaper and TV station said to have close links with opposition parties.  

Ebola in 2015 - end of the line for a killer?
After decades making brief, murderous forays from central Africa's forests, Ebola erupted into a global emergency in 2014, yet its success could spell its downfall as scientists scramble to relegate it to a footnote of medical history. From a single infection in impoverished west Africa, the epidemic swept into bustling cities, killed thousands and unleashed a wave of fear in far-off Europe and America.  

Kerry, Lavrov meet as tensions soar over Ukraine
Top US diplomat John Kerry met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov Sunday, amid anger in Moscow over the prospect of new US sanctions and possible lethal military aid for Ukraine.  

HSBC Fears Horrible End to Japan's QE Blitz As Abe Wins Landslide
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
The Telegraph
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

The warning came as Mr Abe won a sweeping victory in Japan’s snap elections over the weekend, consolidating his power in the Diet and giving him a further mandate for deep reforms.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is seeking a mandate to pursue some of the most radical changes in Japan's modern history.

HSBC has warned that Japan’s barely-disguised attempt to drive down the yen is becoming dangerous and may spin out of control, leading to an exchange rate crisis next year and a worldwide currency storm.

“It is entirely possible that the Yen decline becomes disorderly and swift,” said the bank, in one of the starkest criticisms so far of Japan’s radical stimulus policies.

David Bloom and Paul Mackel, HSBC’s currency strategists, voiced growing concern that premier Shinzo Abe is backing away from fiscal retrenchment and may pressure the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to fund policies aimed at boosting household spending.

“The temptation to drift towards increasingly generous fiscal programmes could grow. We do not expect a ‘helicopter drop’ of income into every household, but the yen would react very badly to any sign that the government is heading down a route of overt monetisation,” they wrote in a report entitled “The Year of Living Dangerously”.

The warning came as Mr Abe won a sweeping victory in Japan’s snap elections over the weekend, consolidating his power in the Diet and giving him a further mandate for deep reforms.

Japan's recovery has faltered. Mr Abe's Thatcherite shake-up, or Third Arrow, has yet to get off the ground, though he is now in a much stronger position to break monopolies and confront vested interests.

The economy slumped back into recession in the middle of this year after a rise in the sales tax from 5pc to 8pc, a move that was clearly premature.

The Abenomics experiment still depends largely on the BoJ's asset purchases, running at 1.4pc of GDP each month, the most extreme monetary blitz ever attempted in a modern economy. Economists are deeply divided over whether this alone can overwhelm the fiscal shock, and lift the economy out a 20-year stagnation trap.

HSBC said Mr Abe may succeed in driving up wages, setting off a "wage-inflation spiral". This may not necessarily lead to a bond rout since the Bank of Japan is effectively holding down bond yields. However, the exchange rate might take the strain instead.

The worry is that this could set off a beggar-thy-neighbour devaluation process across Asia, eventually sucking in China. "The tentacle of the currency war would spread," said the report.

HSBC said China is determined to avoid joining this debasement game as it tries to wean its own economy off export-led growth, but there may be limits. The Chinese economy is slowing and is already in deep producer price deflation. Japanese exporters have been switching to a new strategy over the last six months, cutting export prices to gain market share as the yen falls, rather than pocketing the windfall as extra profit.

"There are grounds to argue that China would join the currency war and devalue the yuan if currency moves elsewhere became disorderly," it said. The warnings have raised eyebrows since HSBC has close policy ties with the Chinese authorities.

The report sketched an unsettling scenario in which capital flight from Japan flows to the US, setting off an "explosive" rise in the dollar. This may combine with "reignited European break-up fears" as political risk spreads, most immediately in Greece.

Such a combination would put immense strain on those emerging markets that have borrowed heavily in dollars.The Bank for International Settlements says cross-border loans to developing economies have soared from $3 trillion to $9 trillion in a decade, creating systemic risk.

HSBC warns that the potential trifecta of a yen crash, a euro slide, and an emerging market crisis could lead to a dollar spike that the US authorities "would be powerless to prevent". This would "destroy the world" as we know it. The report stressed that this is not a forecast but a tail-risk that cannot be ignored.

Takeshi Fujimaki, a Japanese banker and former adviser to George Soros, has also issued a string of warnings. “Once investors see through the BOJ’s camouflage, the yen will spiral out of control to Y200 (to the dollar) and beyond,” he said.

The BoJ has already driven down the yen by 50pc against the dollar to $119 over the last two years, and by the same amount against the yuan. While this was welcomed by Japanese firms at first, it risks going too far. Protests are rising from those who rely on imports.

The central bank's governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stepped up the pace of QE in October in a bid to push up inflation and reignite the damp wood of the Japanese economy. The move was fiercely resisted by four of the BoJ’s nine voting members.

The unstated purpose is to raise nominal GDP growth from past rates of zero to nearer 4pc or 5pc. This is deemed the safe required to stabilize the ratio of public debt to GDP – now 245pc – and avert a debt-compound trap.

The BoJ is currently soaking up the entire bond issuance of the government, forcing down the real interest rate to deeply negative levels. It has accumulated $2.14 trillion of state debt so far, equal to 47pc of GDP. This is rising fast, fuelling suspicions that Mr Kuroda’s true objective is to whittle away the debt burden by printing money.

The HSBC view is unusually gloomy. Mr Kuroda said the bank will "approach" its 2pc inflation target in 2015 and there are signs that business investment is picking up.

The Daiwa Instititute says real wages are poised to rise as the tax shock fades. "Signs of a virtuous cycle are definitely emerging," it said. The yen may stabilize once the economy has adapted to a new nominal GDP trajectory.

Ryutaro Kono from BNP Paribas said Abenomics ran aground in late 2013 but may now have been rescued by the slump in oil prices. Japan imports almost all its fuel. The effect is worth a tax cut of 1pc of GDP. "Its a godsend for Abe," he said.

Yet Japan is clearly at a critical moment. Moody's downgraded the country's debt one notch to A1 earlier this month with an explicit warning: Japan cannot stabilize its debt ratio unless all elements come together at once.

These are fiscal and pension reforms, higher taxes, higher productivity growth, an end to deflation, and nominal GDP growth above 3.5pc. If any one of these falls short, Mr Abe's great gamble may fail.

Europe Moving Toward Legalization of Euthanasia
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
Sputnik News
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

European countries are moving towards euthanasia (doctor-assisted death or "mercy killing") legalization. However, the Roman Catholic Church along with secular critics have warned Europe against a "false sense of compassion," citing human rights violations linked to euthanasia.

Pope Francis Calls Euthanasia, Abortion 'Sins Against God'
 
French Parliament has passed the law, easing restrictions on assisted death on Friday, December 12, moving gradually towards euthanasia legalization.

"French legislation introduced Friday to ease restrictions on doctor-assisted death risks further diversifying the range of clashing national laws on euthanasia across Europe," Agence France-Presse reported.

It should be noted that a wide range of European states have already authorized physician assisted suicide, while only Italy, Romania, Greece, Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia, Poland and Ireland strictly prohibit euthanasia. For instance, who breach the law risk to face 14 and 15-year prison terms in Ireland and Italy, respectively.

However, in the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg active, direct euthanasia is fully legalized. In the Netherlands. a patient, suffering from an incurable disease, can make a request for lethal doses of special drugs being "fully mentally lucid," according to Agence France-Presse. The state has also authorized a physician-assisted death for children under 12, in accordance with strict conditions.

Belgium lifted its ban on euthanasia in September 2002 and has become the first country to authorize children to receive euthanasia if they are terminally ill and "understands the consequences of the death." Belgium adults can request for euthanasia if they are facing unbearable sufferings, both of physical or psychic nature. They can express their intention to die in a special agreement before falling ill. Such a "living will" remains valid for five years.
Luxembourg legalized its euthanasia procedures in 2009, however, the legislation excludes minors.

Spanish Youths Support Death Penalty, Abortions, Euthanasia: Study
Remarkably, in Switzerland a terminally ill person can administer a lethal dose of drugs himself.  "Switzerland does not allow active, direct euthanasia by a third party, but tolerates the provision of substances to relieve suffering even if death is a possible side-effect," Agence France Presse notes, adding that the state also tolerates a passive form of euthanasia – suspending medical assistance that maintains patient's life.

Passive euthanasia is also authorized in France, Sweden, the UK, Austria, Germany, Denmark and Norway. For instance, in France, a doctor is allowed to prescribe painkillers even if their use may result in a patient's death. In 2010, the UK abolished a law punishing close relatives of a terminally ill individual for helping them to die.

Number of people seeking to end their lives at euthanasia clinics in Switzerland has doubled
© Fotolia/ DDRockstar
‘Euthanasia Tourism’ to Switzerland Doubles in Four Years – Study
In Hungary, Spain, the Czech Republic and Portugal incurably ill patients may reject further treatment; still passive and active euthanasia is still prohibited in Portugal.

It is worth mentioning that the Roman Catholic Church strongly opposes euthanasia, calling it a "sin against God." On November 15, 2014, Pope Francis warned doctors against "false sense of compassion," addressing the Association of Italian Catholic Doctors.

Secular critics of euthanasia in Europe point out that the legalization of physician-assisted suicide gives doctors the power to decide whether a patient should live or die, citing numerous cases when doctors killed terminally ill patients without their request.

Crashing Crude May Blow a $1.6 Trillion Hole in the Global Oil Sector, Annually
Dec 15th, 2014
Daily News
Market Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Watch out for the oil slick!

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—Talk about an oil spill. The spectacular unhinging of crude oil prices over the past six months is weighing mightily on the U.S. stock market.

And while it may be too early to abandon all hope that the market will stage a year-end Santa rally, it appears that if Father Christmas comes, there’s a good chance his sleigh will be driven by polar bears, instead of gift-laden reindeer.

Wall Street’s gift: a major stock correction.

Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.79%  already endured a bludgeoning, registering its second-worst weekly loss in 2014, shedding 570 points, or 3.2%, on Friday. That’s just shy of the 579 points that the Dow lost during the week ending Jan. 24, earlier this year. It’s also the second worst week for the S&P 500 this year SPX, -1.62% which was down about 58 points, over the past five trading days, or 2.83%, compared to a cumulative weekly loss of 61.7 points, or 3.14%, during the week concluding Oct. 10.

But all that carnage is nothing compared to what may be in store for the oil sector as crude oil tumbles to new gut-wrenching lows on an almost daily basis. On the New York Mercantile exchange light, sweet crude oil for January delivery settled at $57.81 on Friday, its lowest settlement since May 15, 2009.

Moreover, the largest energy exchange traded fund, the energy SPDR XLE, -1.86% is off by 14% over the past month and has lost a quarter of its value since mid-June.

The real damage, however, is yet to come. By some estimates the wreckage, particularly for the oil-services companies, may add up to a stunning $1.6 trillion annual loss, at oil’s current $57 low, predicts Eric Lascelles, RBC Global Asset Management chief economist.

Since it’s a zero-sum game, that translates into a big windfall for everyone else outside of oil players.

In his calculation, Lascelles includes the cumulative decline in oil prices since July and current supply estimates of 93 million barrels a day. It’s a fairly simplistic tally, but it gets the point across that the energy sector is facing a serious oil leak. Here’s a look at a graphic illustrating the zero-sum, wealth redistribution playing out as oil craters:

It’s important to note that Lascelles believes that the downdraft in oil is largely a positive. The economist also believes that oil sector’s pain will be confined mostly to the energy sector.


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