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UN Assembly Urges Israel to Renounce Nuclear Weapons
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
YNet News
Categories: Today's Headlines;The Nation Of Israel

The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved an Arab-backed resolution Tuesday calling on Israel to renounce possession of nuclear weapons and put its nuclear facilities under international oversight.

The resolution, adopted in a 161-5 vote, noted that Israel is the only Middle Eastern country that is not party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It called on Israel to "accede to that treaty without further delay, not to develop, produce test or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons, to renounce possession of nuclear weapons" and put its nuclear facilities under the safeguard of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency.

The United States and Canada were among four countries that joined Israel in opposing the measure, while 18 countries abstained.

Nuclear reactor in Dimona (Photo: Getty Imagebank)

Israel is widely considered to possess nuclear arms but declines to confirm it.

The resolution, introduced by Egypt, echoed a similar Arab-backed effort that failed to gain approval in September at the Vienna-based IAEA. At the time, Israel criticized Arab countries for undermining dialogue in the region by repeatedly singling out the Jewish state in international arenas. Israel's UN Mission did not immediately return a request for comment Tuesday.

The UN resolution, titled "The risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East," pushed for the establishment of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East and lamented that US-backedefforts to convene talks were abandoned in 2012.

Nuclear reactor in Dimona (Photo: Getty Imagebank)
Nuclear reactor in Dimona (Photo: Getty Imagebank)

Israel has long argued that a full Palestinian-Israeli peace plan must precede any creation of a Mideast zone free of weapons of mass destruction. The country also argues that Iran's alleged work on nuclear arms is the real regional threat. Iran denies pursuing such weapons.

General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding but they carry moral weight because it is the only body where all 193 U.N. member states are represented.

Editors Note.....The same people who refuse prevent Iran from obtaining nukes to fulfill their avowed purpose of annhilating Israel are now seeking to force Israel to disarm so that Iran and Arab nations can dispose of Israel.

U.S. Debt Clock Surges Past $18 Trillion
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

The U.S. debt clock has swept past $18 trillion without so much as a flicker of hesitation.

But what is $18 trillion?

How about figuring it in exotic supercars, like those 253-mph, 1,001-horsepower (and 8 miles per gallon) $1.9 million Bugatti Veyrons?

For the national debt, you get just a handful short of 9.5 million of the cars.

How about air-hours for a major jet like Air Force One, assuming operating costs of about $275,000 per hour?

You’d have to rack up 65 million hours of flight, give or take.

And at those burger joints with the tiny $1 burger?

Well, a big pile.

At ZeroHedge.com, commentator Tyler Durden noted, “Last week, total U.S. debt was a meager $17,963,753,617,957.26.”

“Two days later, as updated today, on Black Friday, total outstanding U.S. public debt just hit a new historic level which probably would be better associated with a red color: as of the last work day of November, total U.S. public debt just surpassed $18 trillion for the first time, or $18,005,549,328,561.45 to be precise, of which debt held by the public rose to $12,922,681,725,432.94, an increase of $32 billion in one day.”

“It also means that total U.S. debt has increased by 70 percent under Obama, from $10.625 trillion on January 21, 2009 to $18.005 trillion most recently.”

In short, the federal government has borrowed, and spent, nearly $7.5 trillion more since President Obama took office than it has collected in taxes.

Report: Russia to Supply Syria With S - 300 Missiles
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Arutz Sheva
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

A Syrian news agency reports that during a visit of an envoy headed by the Syrian Foreign Minister to Moscow, Damascus received Russia’s support on all fronts, including on the military front.

According to western diplomats in Moscow, “The senior Russian officials emphasized their complete commitment to supporting Damascus on a military front in its war against terror.” They claimed that the aid will include aerial defense S-300 missiles, as well as other quality advanced weapons.

NATO Alliance Approves Quick Reaction Against Russia
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
The Star
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

The 28 member countries will improve defences against Russia's aggression and other threats, a decision largely spurred by the country's actions in Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond during a round table meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, speaks with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond during a round table meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday.

BRUSSELS—NATO nations agreed on Tuesday to bolster the military alliance’s defences against Russian aggression, continuing its return to its founding mission by focusing on nearby threats as it steps back from more than a decade of combat in Afghanistan.

The 28 member countries approved a new interim quick-reaction military force to protect themselves from Russia or other threats, with an initial unit to be up and running next year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. The interim force will be supplanted in 2016 by a permanent one, he said.

“We are protecting our allies and supporting our partners,” Stoltenberg told reporters at an annual meeting of NATO’s foreign ministers.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged diplomats from other nations to contribute their fair share to the alliance, noting “we can’t have 21st-century security on the cheap.”

It was likely to be the last meeting of foreign ministers who oversaw the International Security Assistance Force, made up largely of NATO troops, which has sought to stabilize Afghanistan since shortly after the 2001 invasion.

The foreign ministers also approved maintaining measures through 2015 initiated to reassure NATO nations nearest Russia, Stoltenberg said. Such measures include stepped-up air patrols over the Baltic Sea and the continuous rotation of NATO military units in and out of countries such as Poland and Baltic republics.

A senior NATO official, speaking anonymously, said the brigade-sized land-based component of the force, about 3,000-4,000 troops contributed by Germany, Norway and the Netherlands, is expected to be operational as of Jan. 1.

The military ramp-up was largely spurred by Russia’s aggressive actions in neighbouring Ukraine. It comes as Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russia separatists signed a new truce on Tuesday, to take effect Friday.

But as with the Sept. 5 ceasefire, which has been violated almost daily with more than 1,000 combat-related deaths in three months, the renewed pledge to end eight months of fighting over territory in eastern Ukraine is likely to have little deterrent effect on irregular forces fighting on both sides.

Let the Headlines Speak
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
From the internet
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Philippines, the Andean Margin and Arizona: Earthquakes 27 November-3 December
Another week, and the Earth is still trembling...........  

Did CNN Have an Agenda in Ferguson?
The New York Post is accusing CNN of lying in its coverage of protests in Ferguson, Missouri, after a grand jury's decision not to indict a white police officer for shooting to death the unarmed black 18-year-old Michael Brown last summer.  

National debt exceeds $18T, sparking renewed criticism of spending under Obama
The national debt has passed the $18 trillion mark, sparking renewed criticism Tuesday from Republicans and other fiscal conservatives over the soaring trajectory of government spending under President Obama.  

Scientists discover Earth protected by a Star Trek like invisible shield
An invisible shield, some 7,200 miles (11,600 km) above Earth, has been found blocking ‘killer electrons’ from bombarding our planet. These electrons can whip around the planet at near-light speed and have been known to threaten astronauts, fry satellites and damage space systems. If they hit Earth on a large scale, they could knock out power grids, radically changing the planet’s climate and driving up rates of cancer. But while scientists know this mysterious shield exists, they are baffled as to how it formed and how exactly it works.  

Monarchy Infidelity: King Richard III’s DNA Places Doubt On Queen Elizabeth’s Claim To England Throne
The DNA proves that somewhere in the male lineage of Richard III, infidelity took place. The infidelity could mean that Queen Elizabeth’s right to rule is in question. According to BBC, depending on where in the family tree the infidelity occurred, it could cast doubt on the Tudor claim to the English throne or, indeed, on Richard’s.  

Patient Isolated over Ebola Fears in Boston
Person suffering Ebola symptoms who recently was in an infected area put in isolation and given tests; possibly first Massachusetts case.  

North Korea accuses US of developing Ebola virus
An editorial in the Pyongyang Times on Monday claims that the US may have developed the Ebola virus and intentionally allowed it to spread throughout West Africa and the rest of the world.  

Satellites detect abundant sulfur dioxide emissions from erupting Pogo volcano, Cape Verde Islands
Satellite sensors keep detecting abundant sulfur dioxide emissions in the region which have the potential to create acid rain. Gas and dust concentrations in the southern part of the island have been high enough to cause health problems (breathing disorders, vomiting, dizziness, headaches etc),  

Egyptian court sentences 185 to death for attack on police
An Egyptian judge sentenced 185 people to death on Tuesday over an attack on a police station on the outskirts of Cairo last year in which police officers were killed.  

ELECTRIC-BLUE CLOUDS SPREADING OVER ANTARCTICA
Earlier this year, AIM researchers announced a surprising teleconnection: The apparition of NLCs in the southern hemisphere is linked to cold air temperatures thousands of miles away in the northern hemisphere.  

More than 1,400 people being actively monitored for Ebola in U.S.: report
“They are being monitored because they came from one of the four countries with ongoing Ebola outbreaks,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, according to Ms. Attkisson, an independent investigative journalist who previously worked for CBS News.  

John Boehner and Harry Reid Agree to Bipartisan Funding of Obama’s Amnesty Plan
News reports indicate that the House GOP plans to surrender to the President and avoid taking a stand against his unconstitutional executive amnesty. Even leftwing media outlets agree that the plan is a unilateral surrender.  

Iran bombs Islamic State targets in Iraq, says Pentagon
Iran has conducted air strikes against Islamic State (IS) targets in eastern Iraq during recent days, a Pentagon spokesman says. Rear Adm John Kirby said the US, which has conducted its own air strikes in Iraq, was not co-ordinating with Iran.  

Netanyahu seeks early election, fires top ministers
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sacked his finance and justice ministers on Tuesday, signaling the break up of his bickering coalition and opening the way for early national elections in Israel.  

Atheist Group Introduces Billboard Designed to Provoke Christmas Believers
A billboard debuted in Milwaukee on Monday that might raise eyebrows. It’s called “Skip Church” and is intended to coincide with the holidays.  

Sinking of Kremlin gas project leaves south-east Europe high and dry
The European Union's diplomatic victory in forcing the Kremlin to cancel its South Stream pipeline also gives Brussels a headache: how to come up with an alternative source of secure gas supply for south-eastern Europe.  

US says Iranian fighter jets bomb IS jihadists in Iraq
Iranian fighter jets struck Islamic State militants in eastern Iraq in recent days, the Pentagon said, signaling Tehran's determination to confront the jihadists and Washington's tacit partnership with arch-foe Iran.  

UN resolution: Israel must renounce nuclear arms
The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly approved an Arab-backed resolution Tuesday calling on Israel to renounce possession of nuclear weapons and put its nuclear facilities under international oversight.  

Knesset to Hold Preliminary Vote on Disbanding the Govt
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Arutz Sheva
Categories: Today's Headlines;The Nation Of Israel

The Knesset will hold a preliminary vote on Wednesday morning on a bill to disband the current government.

The factions comprising the coalition are expected to vote in favor of disbanding the government. Prior to the vote, at 10:00 a.m. the heads of the different faction will gather in the Knesset in order to attempt to settle on a date for the impending round of elections.

Israels New IDF Chiefs Must Take Next Prospective War With Hizballah Onto Enemy Ground
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

In Israel’s Defensive Edge campaign that wound down three months ago, its defense forces under Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and his deputy and successor Maj. Gen. Gady Eizenkott were found wanting by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. He found they lacked the operational and tactical capabilities needed for winning the far more extensive conflicts with Iran and Hizballah which, according to military intelligence forecasts, confront Israel in the spring.

Compared with Hizballah, the IDF appeared under-prepared for taking the fight deep inside its foe’s territory. Netanyahu therefore preferred Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, 52, to lead Israel’s armed forces in the contests ahead. He accordingly dragged out his confirmation of Eizenkott, 54 and father of five, as Israel’s 21st chief of staff as of next February out of political considerations, in deference to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and the army hierarchy. They compromised by approving Golan, former OC Northern Command, as Deputy Chief of Staff.

It was Golan who on Oct. 29 issued a public warning of the preparations Iran’s Lebanese surrogate, the Shiite Hizballah was putting in place for war against Israel – possibly as soon as April 2015. Gen. Golan had this to say. “We have no positive information that there are tunnels… That said, the idea of going below ground is not foreign to Lebanon and is not foreign to Hizballah. And so we have to suppose as a working assumption that there are tunnels [leading under the border into Israel]. They have to be looked for and prepared for,” said the Israeli general.

DEBKAfile’s sources cite Israelis living near the Lebanese border as reporting mysterious noises of digging and blasting under their feet in the last six months.

Confirmation that Hizballah plans to fight Israel on the Jewish state’s home ground came from the horse’s mouth on Nov. 4, when Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah shouted: “You should close all your airports and ports, because there is no place… in the land of occupied Palestine that the resistance’s rockets cannot reach.”

Tehran later confirmed that Hizballah had been supplied with the new Iranian surface rockets, Fatah the Conqueror, which are fitted with warheads weighing half a ton, have a range of 350 km and a speed of 1.5 km per second.

As part of these preparations, our military and intelligence sources disclose that Hizballah troops have begun peeling away from the Syrian military units fighting to repulse rebel forces advancing from the South and threatening bases defending southern Damascus. These rebels are backed by the US and more discreetly by Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Hizballah has separated its units from the Syrian conflict for two objectives:

1. To regroup in the Syrian-Lebanese border Qalamoun mountain region, where its strategists and those of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards forecast the next clashes will erupt between Hizballah and Israel and Hizballah and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – ISIS.

2. To transform its Qalamoun bases into launching pads for shooting rockets against Israel from Syrian soil.

With its Qalamoun base of operations in place, Hizballah is getting set for a major all-out war that could involve Iran, the Syrian army, Al Qaeda and ISIS and Hamas in Gaza – or a running conflict that occurs as a series of drawn-out skirmishes against Israel erupting from diverse quarters.

Moscow took a hand in developing this blueprint and augmenting its backing for Syrian ruler Bashar Assad with a pledge, announced Sunday, Nov. 30, to let Damascus have advanced S-300 anti-air missiles systems, as well as other weaponry needed by his army to throw back the Syrian rebel advance on the capital

Iranian Jets Join Allies in the Fight Against Islamic State in Iraq
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
The Telegraph
Categories: Today's Headlines;War

First evidence of Islamic Republic forces fighting alongside the RAF to take control of towns from Isil in northern Iraq.

An F/A-18C Hornet from the Stingers of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 113 launches from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson
An F/A-18C Hornet from the Stingers of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 113 launches from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson Photo: U.S. Navy

British, American and other allied forces are now fighting directly alongside their former rivals Iran, according to new footage of the war in Iraq.

An Iranian jet has been filmed for the first time bombing positions of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil), during a battle for the town of Saadiya, north-east of Baghdad.

United State Air Force jets have been flying missions over Iraq since August, and the RAF since September. Pentagon officials later confirmed that Iranian jets had taken part in bombing raids.

Iranian advisers are known to have been embedded with the Iraqi army and militia forces fighting Isil. But this is the first proof that the Islamic Republic and the countries it famously termed the “Great and Little Satan” - America and Britain - are taking part in missions on the same side.

The footage was filmed on Sunday by an Al-Jazeera crew reporting on the key battle for Saadiya and Jalula, two towns north-east of Baghdad not far from the Iranian border.

Al-Jazeera claimed the jet belonged to the Iraqi air force, which was given half a dozen Russian-built Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack jets by Iran at the outset of the war in June.

However, analysts from IHS Jane’s Defence identified the jet as a McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II, a relic of America’s pre-1979 alliance with the Shah’s Iran. The Phantom was a staple of the US Air Force in the Vietnam war.

The only other country still using Phantoms in the Middle East, Jane’s said, was Turkey, which has pledged not to take a direct part in the fight against Isil.

“This footage is the first visual evidence of direct IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force) involvement in the conflict,” Jane’s noted.

After Jane’s claims were drawn to their attention, Pentagon and British defence sources both confirmed that US and RAF personnel operating in Iraq were already aware of the Iranian air force’s presence.

"We have indications that they did indeed fly air strikes with F-4 Phantoms in the past several days," said Rear Admiral John Kirby, Pentagon spokesman.

Iran is not part of the formal coalition drawn up to take on Isil in Iraq and Syria, in which France and several Gulf nations are flying sorties as well as Britain and the US.

The British and American governments have always been keen to stress that there is no direct co-ordination with Iran.

But earlier in the autumn, American jets bombed positions in the town of Amerli north of Baghdad shortly before it was retaken from Isil by Iraqi ground troops assisted by Iranian-backed Shia militia.

As if to emphasise the point that the US was effectively providing air cover for an old enemy - many of those Shia militia fought against the American and British presence in Iraq after the 2003 invasion - Qasim Suleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Al-Quds force, made a highly publicised victory tour of Amerli.

Mr Suleimani oversees all Iranian military assistance to Shia militias abroad, and is regarded as a powerful eminence grise of the regime.

Until his presence in Amerli, though, he rarely allowed himself to be photographed.

Despite the lack of formal collaboration, the Iranians, British and Americans seem to have an informal arrangement over zones of influence. According to regular Ministry of Defence and Pentagon releases, most coalition air attacks in Iraq are either in the north, in support of Kurdish forces fighting on a front line on the southern edge of the Kurdish autonomous region, or in western Iraq.

The Saadiya operation was near the Iranian border to the east.

“It is unlikely that Iran would become a fully fledged member of the coalition,” one defence source said. “But we hope that they would align themselves with the direction that the coalition are taking.” A Pentagon official was quoted by the Huffington Post website as saying that because the US was operating in Iraq with the permission of the Baghdad government, it could not put pressure on the Iraqis over the Iranian involvement.

“We’re there at the invitation of the Iraqi government, so it’s not for us to say what they should allow, what they shouldn’t allow,” the official said.

Nevertheless, the presence of Iranian, British and American forces fighting alongside each other is a sign of shifting alliances in the Middle East and warming ties, particularly as talks over the Iranian nuclear programme continue.

This closeness is causing unease in majority Sunni countries, particularly in the Gulf, which regards Iran as a major destabilising influence in the region - as do, officially, Britain and the US.

Until recently, both countries were insisting that the use of military force against Iran over its nuclear programme remained “on the table”.

Iran’s rivals, like Saudi Arabia, insist that there will be no solution to the Isil crisis until President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is removed.

Prince Turki bin Faisal, the influential former Saudi ambassador to both Britain and America, said yesterday that Iran should be forced to withdraw its support for Mr Assad.

Without Iranian support, Mr Assad would be gone in a few weeks, he said at a conference in London organised by the European Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday.

Hamas Rocket Test Shows Prep for Next War
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Arutz Sheva
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Three rockets fired in test by Hamas from Tel Katifa, Jewish community before Disengagement expelled all Jews from Gaza.
Gaza terrorists fire rockets (file)
Gaza terrorists fire rockets (file)
Albert Sadikov/Flash 90

Gaza's Hamas terrorist leaders on Wednesday apparently celebrated the disbanding of the Knesset coalition by launching a missile test, in another threatening show of force indicating the group's preparations for yet another terror war on Israel.

Three rockets were fired into the Mediterranean Sea by Hamas according to IDF sources, who said the launches were identified from the Tel Katifa region, reports Channel 10.

The area from which the rockets were fired was a Jewish community before the 2005 Disengagement plan forcefully expelled all Jews from Gaza, paving the way for Hamas's takeover of the region.

Late last month Hamas held four rocket tests in two days, with the IDF estimating that the terrorist organization is "experimenting in order to increase rocket launching capabilities."

Likewise the terrorist organization has started rebuilding its terror tunnels to attack Israeli citizens, after roughly 30 of them were destroyed in the last operation.

Mosab Yousef, the son of Hamas leader Sheikh Hassan Yousef known for working for the Israel Security Agency (ISA or Shin Bet), last Tuesday joined the voices calling for Israel to launch a war to get rid of Hamas before the next conflict breaks out.

"You cannot escape from [Hamas militarization] with temporary solutions. You have to address the Hamas problem by pulling it up from the roots, once and for all," said Yousef.

Hamas has been active, with a revelation last month showing the group was behind a foiled assassination attempt on Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu).

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri responded to the publication, saying "all the leaders of the occupation are considered legitimate targets for resistance."

Guess What Happened the Last Time the Price of Oil Crashed Like This?
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. 

Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher. When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets. 

As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market. And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way. 

So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds. If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy. Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet.

Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia. This “revolution” has resulted in the creation of millions of jobs since the last recession, and it has been one of the key factors that has kept the percentage of Americans that are employed fairly stable.

Unfortunately, the shale oil boom is coming to an abrupt end. As a recent Vox article discussed, OPEC has essentially declared a price war on U.S. shale oil producers…

For all intents and purposes, OPEC is now engaged in a “price war” with the United States. What that means is that it’s very cheap to pump oil out of places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. But it’s more expensive to extract oil from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. So as the price of oil keeps falling, some US producers may become unprofitable and go out of business. The result? Oil prices will stabilize and OPEC maintains its market share.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues falling, we will see a significant number of U.S. shale oil companies go out of business and large numbers of jobs will be lost. The Saudis know how to play hardball, and they are absolutely ruthless. In fact, we have seen this kind of scenario happen before…

Robert McNally, a White House adviser to former President George W. Bush and president of the Rapidan Group energy consultancy, told Reuters that Saudi Arabia “will accept a price decline necessary to sweat whatever supply cuts are needed to balance the market out of the US shale oil sector.” Even legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens believes Saudi Arabia is in a stand-off with US drillers and frackers to “see how the shale boys are going to stand up to a cheaper price.” 

This has happened once before. By the mid-1980’s, as oil output from Alaska’s North Slope and the North Sea came on line (combined production of around 5-6 million barrels a day), OPEC set off a price war to compete for market share. As a result, the price of oil sank from around $40 to just under $10 a barrel by 1986.

But the energy sector has been one of the only bright spots for the U.S. economy in recent years. If this sector starts collapsing, it is going to have a dramatic negative impact on our economic outlook. For example, just consider the following numbers from a recent Business Insider article…

Specifically, if prices get too low, then energy companies won’t be able to cover the cost of production in the US. This spending by energy companies, also known as capital expenditures, is responsible for a lot of jobs.

“The Energy sector accounts for roughly one-third of S&P 500 capex and nearly 25% of combined capex and R&D spending,” Goldman Sachs’ Amanda Sneider writes.

Even more troubling is what this could mean for the financial markets.

As I mentioned above, energy companies now account for close to 20 percent of the entire junk bond market. As those companies start to fail and those bonds start to go bad, that is going to hit our major banks really hard…

Everyone could suffer if the collapse triggers a wave of defaults through the high-yield debt market, and in turn, hits stocks. The first to fall: the banks that were last hit by the housing crisis.

Why could that happen?

Well, energy companies make up anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of all U.S. junk debt, according to various sources.

It would be hard to overstate the seriousness of what the markets could potentially be facing.

One analyst summed it up to CNBC this way…

“This is the one thing I’ve seen over and over again,” said Larry McDonald, head of U.S strategy at Newedge USA’s macro group. “When high yield underperforms equity, a major credit event occurs. It’s the canary in the coal mine.“

The last time junk bonds collapsed, a major stock market crash followed fairly rapidly.

And those that were hardest hit were the big Wall Street banks…

During the last high-yield collapse, which centered around debt tied to the housing sector, Citigroup lost 63 percent of its value in the following 60 days, Kensho shows. Bank of America was cut in half.

I understand that some of this information is too technical for a lot of people, but the bottom line is this…

Watch junk bonds. When they start crashing it is a sign that a major stock market collapse is right at the door.

At this point, even the mainstream media is warning about this. Just consider the following excerpt from a recent CNN article…

That swing away from junk bonds often happens shortly before stock market downturns.

“High yield does provide useful sell signals to equity investors,” Barclays analysts concluded in a recent report.

Barclays combed through the past dozen years of data. The warning signal they found is a 30% or greater increase in the spread between Treasuries and junk bonds before a dip.

If you have been waiting for the next major financial collapse, what you have just read in this article indicates that it is now closer than it has ever been.

Over the coming weeks, keep your eye on the price of oil, keep your eye on the junk bond market and keep your eye on the big banks.

Trouble is brewing, and nobody is quite sure exactly what comes next.…

Foreshadowing of Daniel 9:27? Jordan's King Abdullah Pushes for "Final Peace Accord"
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

Jordan on Tuesday launched a bid to win backing for a UN resolution calling for a final Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that could be presented to the Security Council in the coming weeks.

Jordan’s Ambassador Dina Kawar said she would be meeting with representatives from Arab countries and council members to gauge whether there is support for a “unified text” on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace.

If a consensus can be reached, a draft resolution could be presented to the council later this month or in January, she said.

“We are going to try to make it before Christmas, if not it will be in January,” Kawar told reporters. “We really want to get everybody on board. That’s our intention.”

The Palestinians, backed by the Arab League, circulated a draft resolution at the end of September that called for ending the Israeli occupation by November 2016.

The text ran into opposition from the United States and other members of the council, opening the way for the Europeans led by France to begin talks on a separate draft that would set a timeframe for ending negotiations.

“We will be sitting together and seeing the possibilities of working with everybody to get as close as possible to a unified text,” said Kawar.

Palestinian representative Riyad Mansour told AFP on Monday that he expected the new resolution to be presented by the middle of the month, with a vote to quickly follow.

“The French are moving more and more, trying to bring all the European colleagues together, and I think that eventually they will succeed,” he said.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told parliament last week that a final settlement should be reached within two years.

Fabius is due to meet US Secretary of State John Kerry in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss the French proposal that would also pave the way for an international conference to relaunch the peace process.

It remains unclear whether the United States, which has vetoed UN resolutions seen as critical of Israel, would support a text to restart the peace process.

Jordan’s push at the United Nations came as France’s National Assembly voted in favor of recognising Palestine in a non-binding measure similar to those adopted in Britain, Spain and Ireland.

Denmark is also planning to hold a vote while Sweden has taken the additional step of offering recognition of Palestine.

Crumbling Oil Makes Putin More Dangerous: Expert
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
CNBC
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Russian President Vladimir Putin is being pushed "further into a corner" by falling oil prices, leaving him little option but to continue his aggression toward Ukraine and confrontation with the West, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Tuesday.

Putin has "gone all-in on an anti-U.S., must-keep-Ukraine nationalist engagement," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box." He said it's "completely inconceivable" for Putin to back down.

"This is what is behind all his approval ratings. It's behind who he now is as a leader," Bremmer said, adding that capitulation would "erode a lot of his power."

Russia's currency and economy are crumbling along with oil prices, the country's main export and revenue source. On Monday, the ruble suffered its worst one-day decline since 1998, and it looks like Russia's economy will tip into recession next year.

<p>Oil squeezes Venezuela and Nigeria, emboldens Russia: Expert</p> <p>Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president, discusses the impact of oil&#039;s decline on Venezuela, Nigeria, and Russia.</p>

"I think that lower oil prices simply squeeze him harder, pushes him further into a corner. He feels he has to fight as a consequence," said Bremmer, whose Eurasia conducts research and advises clients on political risks around the world.

Because of Putin's aggression in Ukraine, Russia has been forced to scrap a pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe. The $40 billion South Stream project had proposed to enter the EU via Bulgaria. He said Monday the pipeline instead would be diverted to Turkey.

Meanwhile, Bremmer predicted the real problems for Putin and Russia are still a couple years off. "When Putin really takes economic pain that has the potential to destabilize the country, I'm thinking about 2017, in the runup to the 2018 election."

But he said he doesn't see oil prices staying quite this low over time because of the conflict gripping Libya three years after the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi and the possibility of sanctions against Iran.

Could the US and Iran be friends?

Regarding Iran, Bremmer believes relations with the U.S. will improve in the long term, even if a deal is not reached with over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

He tweeted last week:

"Whatever the outcome of the talks, I expect Iran will be one of America's closer friends in the Middle East within a decade."

On "Squawk Box" Tuesday, he said: "Iran is a country that has a large population. It's quite globalized in terms of the orientation of the citizenry towards the world. Women play a big role in it. It's urbanized. It's diversified a economy."

"You ask me long-term who the United States is likely to work with, especially as the efficacy of American sanctions start eroding globally, it's going to be Iran," he continued, but acknowledged that no thawing with Washington can happen with Iran's current leadership.

"I don't see this leadership in place in Iran in 10 years," Bremmer said.

Bloody Christmas: 'Spectacular Attack' Alert
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

Another coordinated terror attack using jetliners, reminiscent of 9/11, could be in the works, according to an airport-security source cited by a London paper.

“We’ve been told that five planes are being targeted in a high-profile hit before Christmas,” the source said, according to the Express newspaper of London.

“They’ve been waiting for the big one.”

Many of the security precautions facing airline passengers worldwide were implemented after four jetliners were hijacked on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people in the U.S.

The new threat was reported in an Express story about whether those who leave Britain to fight with jihadists abroad should be allowed to return.

Moderator Ian Collins talked about the issue with Douglas Murray of the Henry Jackson Society and radical British Muslims cleric Anjem Choudary.

Murray said the home-grown jihadists should be dealt with in the nation’s justice system. Choudary insisted they haven’t committed any crimes, and charging them would be “the cause of further radicalization in this country … pushing people into the arms of the Islamic State.”

The Express report said concern has risen so high over threats against U.K. assets that officials have considered an outright ban on all hand luggage.

The security sources were not identified by the newspaper.

The report said mobile phones and electronics on flights still could be banned as British officials conclude a terror strike is “almost inevitable.”

The unidentified airport security official said: “We have many scares but this one nearly got hand baggage pulled from all airlines. The threat is still alive and real.”

The Express said authorities have been aware of the plot for several weeks. It is believed to involve Islamic jihadists smuggling bombs on to planes bound for major European destinations before Christmas.

There’s no quick solution, the report said.

“There is paralysis because of the difficulty of banning hand luggage which is one of the strongest weapons we have against the new threats,” the report said, “All electronics may be banned from hand luggage and placed in the hold, that has been considered; and there has been behavior analysis training at airports but while it’s effective, it’s difficult to roll out quickly and is not a sufficient safety net.”

The report said the bull’s-eye apparently is on Europe, because the U.S. has improved its security over the summer while the U.K. has not.

All types of perpetrators are being considered, the source said, from insiders – Westerners who have converted and now are pursuing a terror agenda – to sleeper cells of al-Qaida adherents secretly embedded in Western societies.

The report said evidence indicates the threat is growing.

For example, it said David Drugeon, 24, a trusted al-Qaida bombmaker, recently was killed in Syria.

He was part of the Khorasan group, an offshoot of al-Qaida, and was said to be targeting U.S. and U.K. airlines with non-metallic explosive devices, which could be concealed in mobile phones, computers and printer cartridges.

Sally Leivesley, a terrorism expert, told the Express there appear to have been “dry runs” already in which terrorists have tested security procedures.

The onetime British Home Office risk adviser also warned “terrorists are now more likely to be ‘white, blond and blue eyed’ who are radicalized in as little as five weeks.”

Artificial Intelligence is a Risk to Humanity Says Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
news.com
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

Terrifying prospects ... Professor Stephen Hawking says self-learning artificial intellig

Terrifying prospects ... Professor Stephen Hawking says self-learning artificial intelligence poses a risk to the survival of humanity. Picture: AFP Photo / Justin Tallis Source: AFP

IT’S only logical: Human beings don’t deserve to exist. Which is why eminent astrophysicist Stephen Hawking wants our artificial intelligence research aborted.

The wheelchair-ridden thinker told the BBC: “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”

His comment came unexpectedly.

He had been asked to express his thoughts on a recent revamp of his computer-assisted speech system by Intel and machine-learning software company Swiftkey.

Hawking suffers from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease). For decades he has been scrolling a cursor through the alphabet, laboriously building words through twitching his cheek.

Among other things, Hawking had been working with Intel to integrate new features such as predictive text with his existing suite of sensors to help the physically impaired physicist “speak” through a voice synthesiser.

Experiments with EEG sensors to “read” Hawking’s brainwaves failed to produce reliable results. His drooping eyes weren’t clear enough for gaze sensors.

Superseded model ... The fear of robotic “children” outgrowing their “parents” has featured in movies and books from Blade Runner to I, Robot. Source: News Limited

And when it comes to predictive test, nothing more than a souped-up “learning” version of what your average smartphone user would expect, Hawking himself initially preferred his time-tested pick-and-choose method. But the electronic “shortcut” soon grew on him.

It’s not that he’s a technophobe: Hawking has embraced a wide range of technologies in his quest to communicate, research and extrapolate.

But the ability of the software to “learn” and “predict” his preference in words spooked the astrophysicist.

He says such primitive forms of artificial intelligence have proven very useful.

But he went on to say he feared the consequences of creating something smarter than us.

“It would take off on its own, and redesign itself at an ever-increasing rate,” he said.

“Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded.”

He’s not the only one to recently express such fears.

It’s been very much on the mind of technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, now chief executive of rocket-maker Space X.

He’s been even more evocative in his language.

“Summoning the demon” of self-learning artificial intelligence would be “potentially more dangerous than nukes”, he says.

“I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that ... With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s like yeah he’s sure he can control the demon. Didn’t work out.”

It’s a threat which has caused the formation of ethics panels and UN investigations, university reviews and consumer protection reports.

All up, it seems the potential for such a threat is there: But it’s not a clear and present danger.

In the meantime, the much more immediate fear is that thinking machines will rapidly displace humans in the workforce: Sleepless, never tiring, performing repetitive but complex task in an indefatigable manner.

Arab League Joins PA Bid for United Nations Timeline on Israeli Pullout to Pre - 1967 Lines
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Commentary

Arab foreign ministers decided on Saturday to support the Palestinian Authority’s plan to seek a UN Security Council resolution calling for a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.

The decision followed a meeting of the ministers in Cairo to discuss the latest developments in the region and PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s plan to seek a Security Council resolution that sets a timeline for Israel’s pullout and the creation of a Palestinian state.

Abba said that if he does not receive answers from Israel regarding his demand to resume the peace talks on the basis of the pre-1967 lines by the end of the day on Saturday, he would proceed with his statehood bid at the Security Council and join international organizations and treaties, including the International Criminal Court.

The Arab ministers said that the Arab countries would present a draft resolution to the Security Council that includes the PA demands for a withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines.

However, the ministers did not say when the draft resolution would be presented to the council.

However, they said that they would continue to hold consultations with all members of the Security Council, as well as various international parties, to win their backing for the proposed resolution.

The Arab League ministers also reiterated their opposition to Israel’s demand to be recognized as a Jewish state.

Abbas attended Saturday’s meeting in Cairo. He threatened to proceed with his statehood bid at the Security Council unless the peace talks with Israel are revived.

“Israel does not know where its borders are and is refusing to define them,” Abbas said. “We will present an Arab plan to the Security Council calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state. All indications are that US mediation efforts to revive the peace talks have failed.”

He said that the PA had asked US Secretary of State John Kerry to work together to draft the resolution that would be presented to the Security Council. The PA also asked Kerry to put pressure on Israel to stop settlement construction and release more Palestinian prisoners, Abbas added.

Abbas warned that if the Palestinian move at the Security Council is thwarted, “we would move toward defining our relations with Israel by halting security coordination and asking the occupation to assume its responsibilities [toward the Palestinian population].”

The US is expected to use its veto power in the Security Council to block the Palestinian resolution. It has spoken in favor of the resumption of direct negotiations as the sole path to solving the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

The Prime Minister’s Office would not comment on Abbas’ request to resume talks based on the pre-1967 lines. But in the past, Netanyahu has rejected that language.

An Israeli official said, “Abbas always wants to talk about the borders of the future Palestinian state, but refuses to answer the fundamental questions. Will the Palestinian state recognize the Jewish state? Will he agree to demilitarization? Will he end incitement to hatred against Israel?” The Israeli official added, “By avoiding these essential questions, he makes a serious discussions of the borders impossible. These issues are intertwined. He cannot just chose the ones that he is comfortable discussing.”

The official warned any Palestinian decision to unilaterally seek statehood recognition or to turn to the International Criminal Court “could be highly destabilizing.”

With respect to Abbas’s threats to end the PA’s security cooperation with Israel, the official said that both sides benefit from the relationship.

The official noted that, just two months ago, Israeli security forces had uncovered a Hamas plot against Abbas.

In Cairo on Saturday, Abbas told the emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers, “We are no longer able to live with the status quo. We have no choice but to internationalize the Palestinian cause.”

He also reiterated the Palestinians’ refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

“We recognize the State of Israel, but we won’t recognize a Jewish state at all,” Abbas stressed. “If Israel wants to change its name, it should go to the UN. This is its business.”

Anglican Bishop Says Quran Should be Read At Prince Charles' Coronation
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;One World Church;Commentary

A senior Church of England bishop has said that Prince Charles' coronation service should include a reading from the Quran so that Muslims feel "embraced" by the nation – a proposal which is being criticized by some Christian groups in the U.K.

Lord Harries of Pentregarth, the former Bishop of Oxford who now serves as an assistant bishop in the diocese of Southwark, made the proposal during a House of Lords debate, U.K.'s Daily Mail reports.

Reading the Quran at the coronation would mean the Church of England is taking the lead in "exercising its historic position in a hospitable way," as well as allow leaders of non-Christian religions to give their blessing to the new king, the bishop was quoted as saying.

Referring to a civic service in Bristol Cathedral last year, where the opening passage of the Quran was read before the beginning of the Christian service, Lord Harry said, "It was a brilliant creative act of accommodation that made the Muslim high sheriff feel, as she said, warmly embraced but did not alienate the core congregation."

More than two decades ago, Prince Charles, the eldest child and heir apparent of Queen Elizabeth II, said he would like to portray himself as "Defender of Faith" rather than "Defender of the Faith."

However, Lord Harries' statement was denounced by Christian groups.

"Most people will be amazed at the idea that a Christian leader would consider the use of the Quran at a Christian service in a Christian abbey," the newspaper quoted Simon Calvert of the Christian Institute think-tank as saying. "People are just so disappointed when senior Church of England figures lose confidence in the claims of the Christian faith."

"At a time when we are looking at what British values mean, we cannot have values in a vacuum. British values stem from our Christian heritage," Andrea Minichiello Williams, a member of the denomination's General Synod and head of the Christian Concern pressure group, was quoted as saying. "We cannot pretend all religions are the same, or have the same benefits and outcomes for the nation."

In the run up to the Easter earlier this year, British Prime Minister Cameron said, "I am proud of the fact we're a Christian country and we shouldn't be ashamed to say so."

A survey conducted in April by The Telegraph showed substantial support for the Cameron's view. More than 56 percent of respondents said they regard Britain as a Christian country. The figure rose to 60 percent among men and 73 percent among those over 65.

The survey also indicated that almost two-thirds of practicing Christians appear to be frightened of speaking out about their faith. About 62 percent said the rise of religious fundamentalism had made Christians afraid to express their faith. Besides, 62 percent who hold Christian beliefs but do not worship regularly said they feel Christians are given "less protection" than other religious groups by the state.

Former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, earlier told a newspaper that Britain is now a "post-Christian" society, which, though remains haunted by Christianity.

Britain is "post-Christian in the sense that habitual practice for most of the population is not taken for granted," Williams, who is now master of Magdalene College, Cambridge, told The Telegraph in an interview. "A Christian nation can sound like a nation of committed believers, and we are not that."

Williams, a member of the House of Lords, added, "It's a matter of defining terms. A Christian country as a nation of believers? No. A Christian country in the sense of still being very much saturated by this vision of the world and shaped by it? Yes."

8 Clear Signs of a Compromising Church
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
Prophecy News Watch
Categories: Today's Headlines;Apostasy

During the days of Nazi Germany there arose a Confessing Church movement that rose against the German Church movement, which became the religious arm of the Fascist Nazi Socialist movement. Of the 18,000 pastors in Germany during that time (from 1933 to 1945), less than 5,000 were aligned with the Confessing Church. 

Hence, only a remnant held fast to the biblical position with about half of the churches conforming due to political and societal pressure. Unfortunately, this demonstrates that, when push comes to shove, a large percentage of pastors, churches and so-called Christians will probably bow to pressure and allow the norms of culture to become their credo for Christianity.

We see the same thing today in churches in the USA and beyond. With the accelerated pace of the attack on religious liberty today, there could develop a great divide in the church between confessing churches and compromising churches similar to what happened in Nazi Germany. 

This will not be a divide based on denominational affiliation but based on the degree of loyalty to biblical fidelity. It is sad but true that more and more believers will be compromising core biblical values and standards rather than be stigmatized or persecuted, and lose influence in society.

In John 12:42-43 we see that many contemporaries of Jesus believed in Him but would not confess Him because they loved the praise of men more than the praise of God.

The following are contrasts between the confessing church and the compromising church.

1. In the confessing church, Christ is over culture. The compromising church accommodates Christ to culture. The confessing church believes Jesus is Lord over all creation. 

Hence, they attempt to reflect Christ in every area of culture. The compromising church has a posture of accommodation. Hence, the Christ they believe in and preach is shaped by the culture they live in.

2. The confessing church holds fast to the Word of God in spite of opposition. The compromising church alters the Word of God because of opposition. Soon in America it is quite possible that it will be illegal to preach from certain passages of the Bible dealing with human sexuality. Because of this, many will alter their theology to fit the culture while the confessing church will preach the Word of God in spite of governmental fines, penalties, lawsuits and even serving time in jail.

3. The confessing church puts the kingdom of God above their culture and ethnicity. The compromising church puts their ethnicity before the kingdom of God. The German Church during the Nazi era put nationalism and their Aryan heritage above the Word of God. Many pastors and believers today view the Scriptures more through the lens of their ethnicity and national heritage than through a proper exegesis of Scripture.

When, and if, our nation officially makes biblical Christianity illegal, we will soon see who will be the confessors and who will be the compromisers. In many ways, practicing biblical Christianity is already illegal when it comes to believers attempting to walk out their faith in the marketplace because private Christian-owned businesses do not have the same level of protection today as do local churches.

4. The confessing church alters their methods of preaching. The compromising church alters the message they preach. While it is wise and biblical for the body of Christ to be relevant to culture regarding the preaching of the gospel, it should never put being relevant above being faithful. The compromising church puts being relevant before biblical faithfulness. Hence, they not only change the method of preaching but also the message they preach.

5. The confessing church is a remnant in the minority of church and state. The compromising church wants to be in the mainstream of both church and state. The confessing church endures long seasons of feeling like aliens and strangers in their own communities. The compromising church wants to be in the mainstream of culture more than living in the divine flow of God's favor and presence.

6. The confessing church is penalized by the state government. The compromising church is applauded by the state government. While the confessing church is hunted down and ostracized by the humanistic state, the compromising church is celebrated by the far-left radicals and used as a model of how church and state should function together.

7. The confessing church prophetically speaks truth to power. The compromising church conforms to those in power. The confessing church knows that at various seasons in their existence they will not gain a lot of converts and/or experience societal transformation. 

The best they can do is to maintain a prophetic witness to the cultural elites and surrounding communities. Since the compromising church enjoys the power and prestige the elites grant them, they always conform rather than confront.

8. The confessing church desires the praise of God. The compromising church desires the praise of men. Ultimately at the end of the day it boils down to this: Are we living for the praise of men or the praise of God? If things don't change in the coming days, we will be shocked at how many megachurches, mid-size churches and smaller churches compromise the word of God so they could continue to keep their doors open.

At some point we will all have to stand the ultimate test, which is whether we desire God more than we love our lives, or whether we love our pleasures, conveniences and material goods more than God. Truly, if we confess Christ before men He will confess us before His Father in heaven, but if we deny Him before men He will deny us before His Father in heaven (Matt. 10:32-33).

'Pakistan Could Have 200 Nuclear Weapons By 2020'
Dec 3rd, 2014
Daily News
DW
Categories: Today's Headlines;Contemporary Issues

While many states are downsizing their nuclear stockpiles, Asia is witnessing a buildup. Pakistan, located in a region "most at risk of a breakdown," has the fastest-growing nuclear program, as Gregory Koblentz tells DW.

Pakistan Ghauri Atom Rakete Parade in Islamabad

In report released by the US-based Council on Foreign Relations titled Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age, author Gregory D. Koblentz, an expert on arms control and non-proliferation, identifies South Asia as the region "most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to an explosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growing nuclear arsenals."

In this context, Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world. And as Koblentz says in a DW interview, by 2020, the Islamic Republic could have a stockpile of fissile material that, if weaponized, could produce as many as two hundred nuclear devices, roughly equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom's nuclear arsenal.

DW: Why do you claim Asia as a whole is witnessing a nuclear weapons build-up?

The only four countries currently expanding their nuclear arsenals are China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Although each nation's buildup is motivated by different reasons, the combination makes Asia the center of a new nuclear arms race.

China has been increasing and diversifying its nuclear arsenal since the end of the Cold War. This buildup is part of a broader effort to modernize the Chinese military and is also motivated by advances in the US' military capabilities such as long-range precision strike systems and missile defenses.

'Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world,' says Koblentz

Major developments include the introduction of road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles and a new generation of nuclear submarines armed with ballistic missiles. These new forces should significantly improve the survivability of China's strategic nuclear forces.

India and Pakistan's slow-motion arms race picked up speed in 1998 when both countries conducted multiple nuclear tests. The ensuing nuclear and missile buildup by both countries shows no signs of abating. Last month, Pakistan tested two missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads: the 900-kilometer range Shaheen-1A (Hatf-IV) and the 1,500-kilometer range Shaheen 2 (Hatf-VI).

Altogether, Pakistan has deployed or is developing eleven different nuclear delivery systems including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. India is also fielding an increasingly capable array of ballistic and cruise missiles to complement its nuclear-capable aircraft. Both states are also expanding their capacity for producing highly enriched uranium and plutonium, the two key materials needed to produce nuclear weapons.

North Korea is the newest member to the nuclear club. Although North Korea started with a much smaller base of nuclear and missile technology than China, India or Pakistan, it has exerted enormous effort to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to be delivered to the continental United States by a ballistic missile.

In your report you identify South Asia as the region "most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability." Why is this the case?

South Asia is the region most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to an explosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growing nuclear arsenals. While the United States and Soviet Union were engaged in a fierce competition during the Cold War, India and Pakistan face more severe security challenges than those of the other nuclear weapon states. The status of the Muslim-majority province of Jammu and Kashmir in India remains a source of dispute between the two states. India and Pakistan have already fought three conventional wars since they gained independence in 1947, including two over Kashmir.

Patriot Raketenabwehrsystem

Koblentz: 'China's military buildup is partly motivated by advances in the US' military capabilities such as long-range precision strike systems and missile defenses'

Since their nuclear tests in 1998, India and Pakistan have fought one low-intensity war (the 1999 Kargil War) and experienced two serious crises spurred by terrorist attacks launched from Pakistan (the 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament and the 2008 Mumbai attack). The geographic proximity of the two countries complicates crisis management since the flight times of ballistic missiles is measured in minutes. Finally, while both states claim to seek only a credible minimum nuclear deterrent, regional dynamics have driven them to pursue an array of nuclear and missile capabilities.

In this context, how dangerous has the ongoing rivalry between India and Pakistan become?

One of the most dangerous aspects of Indo-Pakistani rivalry is the introduction of tactical nuclear weapons in South Asia. During the next Indo-Pakistani conflict, the "fog of war" could take the shape of a mushroom cloud. After the 1999 Kargil War, India developed a new doctrine of rapid, limited conventional military operations designed to punish Pakistan but remain below Pakistan's presumed nuclear threshold.

In response, Pakistan has begun deploying tactical nuclear weapons, such as the Nasr (Hatf IX) short-range ballistic missile, to deter even limited Indian military intervention. Since the conventional military imbalance between India and Pakistan is expected to grow thanks to India's larger economy and higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, Pakistan's reliance on nuclear weapons to compensate for its conventional inferiority will likely be an enduring feature of the nuclear balance in South Asia.

One of the most worrisome risks introduced by Pakistan's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, especially acute during a crisis, is what Scott Sagan calls the "vulnerability/invulnerability paradox."

Pakistani nuclear doctrine calls for the deployment of road-mobile missiles during a crisis to protect them from an Indian first strike. But these weapons will become more vulnerable to theft or terrorist takeover once they leave the security of a military garrison.

The risk that terrorists could breach Pakistan's nuclear security is magnified by the strong presence of domestic extremists and foreign jihadist groups in Pakistan, their demonstrated ability to penetrate the security of military facilities, and evidence that these groups have infiltrated the Pakistani security services.

Another worrisome development is that the Pakistani practice of storing its nuclear warheads separately from launchers, which has provided a strong barrier to nuclear escalation in the past, may be eroding. The introduction of tactical nuclear weapons may lead Pakistan to loosen its highly centralized command and control practices. Due to their short-ranges (the Nasr/Hatf-IX has a range of about 60 kilometers), these types of weapons need to be deployed close to the front-lines and ready for use at short-notice.

Granting lower-ranking officers greater authority and capability to arm and launch nuclear weapons raises the risk of unauthorized actions during a crisis. Another risk is inadvertent escalation. There is the potential for a conventional conflict to escalate to the nuclear level if the commander of a forward-deployed, nuclear-armed unit finds himself in a "use it or lose it" situation and launches the nuclear weapons under his control before his unit is overrun.

How fast is Pakistan's nuclear weapons' stockpile growing?

While there are significant uncertainties about the scope and sophistication of Pakistan's nuclear weapon program, the country appears to have the most aggressive program in the world for producing nuclear material for military purposes. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Pakistan currently has enough fissile material, in the form of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, for about 100-120 nuclear weapons.

However, Pakistan is expanding its capability to produce even more weapons-grade material. By 2020, it could have sufficient weapons-grade uranium and plutonium to manufacture more than 200 nuclear weapons, roughly equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom's nuclear arsenal.

Although Pakistan initially focused on the uranium route to nuclear weapons, in recent years it has focused more on the plutonium pathway. Pakistan currently has three reactors at the Khusab nuclear site, 200 kilometers south of Islamabad, capable of producing enough plutonium for six to seven nuclear weapons a year.

In addition, Pakistan is constructing a fourth reactor at this site and expanding its ability to reprocess the spent fuel from these reactors to obtain additional plutonium. Once all four reactors and associated reprocessing facilities are complete, Pakistan will be able to produce an estimated 10-12 bombs-worth of plutonium a year.

Where is Pakistan getting the material it needs to develop these weapons?

Pakistan has a well-developed covert procurement network to obtain the materials it needs to fuel its nuclear and missile programs. During the 1970s, the Pakistani metallurgist Abdul Qadeer Khan obtained critical information about centrifuges being developed by the Anglo-Dutch-German consortium URENCO. Khan used his personal contacts and a list of URENCO's European suppliers to obtain vital material for the uranium enrichment program for several decades.

China also provided important assistance in the early 1980s in the form of highly enriched uranium and the design for an early-generation nuclear weapon. China has also been the source of key technologies (such as ring magnets) for the centrifuge program and for the construction of the Khusab plutonium production reactors. The Institute for Science and International Security has also documented a number of recent cases of American, Pakistani, Chinese, and Israeli citizens violating US export control laws by attempting to ship dual-use materials to Pakistan.

Koblentz: 'During the next Indo-Pakistani conflict, the 'fog of war' could take the shape of a mushroom cloud'

Are there any international attempts or strategies to halt the nuclear arms build-up in the region?

The nuclear and missile arms race in South Asia has not received the same level of international concern as developments in Iran or North Korea. The US tried to prevent arms racing between India and Pakistan after their 1998 nuclear tests but that effort fell to the wayside as other issues gained higher priority.

The terrorist attacks on September 11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan pushed nuclear issues low down on the list of important issues in US-Pakistani relations. Similarly, the rise of China and the potential for greater economic relations eclipsed nuclear weapon issues in US relations with India.

What is your forecast for the region for the next 5 to 10 years in terms of security and the development of nuclear weapons?

Unfortunately, I think that South Asia will remain at high risk for a nuclear crisis of some sort for the next five to ten years. Kashmir will continue to be a source of conflict between India and Pakistan. That territory has existential implications for both countries and will not be resolved in the foreseeable future.

Although Pakistan experienced its first democratic change of government in 2013, the country's history of military coups will limit the ability of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his successors to challenge the authority of the military establishment on defense and foreign policy issues.

Koblentz: 'Pakistan's history of military coups will limit the ability of PM Nawaz Sharif to challenge the authority of the military establishment on defense and foreign policy issues'

In addition, elements of the Pakistani government, such as the Inter-Service Intelligence agency, actively resist efforts at rapprochement with India. At the same time, India has not gone out of its way to assuage Pakistan's sense of vulnerability to its much larger and richer neighbor or pursue confidence-building measures that could reduce nuclear risks on the subcontinent.

The next crisis between India and Pakistan could be sparked by a cross-border military incursion, a mass-casualty terrorist attack, or a high-profile assassination. The growth of nuclear and missile capabilities on the subcontinent since 1998 has increased the risk that such a crisis could escalate in unforeseen and dangerous ways.

As India and Pakistan deploy new nuclear forces, such as cruise missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, and sea-based nuclear missiles, new challenges to crisis stability, deterrence, and command and control will arise. If India and Pakistan don't change their current trajectory, a nuclear crisis, or even worse, is likely to occur.


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