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“Is Europe on the Verge of Demographic Collapse?”
by The Irish Times   
June 7th, 2013
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A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of demographic suicide. Although the consequences of such a turnout could not be more serious, the problem attracts little public attention – indeed, most people may not even be aware of it. And experts can neither explain the cause nor prescribe a reliable remedy. The story is outlined in Population and Public Policy: Essays in Honour of Paul Demeny, published by the New York-based Population Council (2013).

Having too few children is a recent phenomenon. Sixty years ago, people worried about ballooning populations in the developing world resulting from high fertility rates and declining death rates (due to healthcare). The birth rate required to keep the population steady (replacement birth rate) is 2.1 children per woman, and this rate was set as the demographic goal to stabilise population.

War on population
The UN got behind the initiative, Third World governments came on board and contraception was made widely available. Economic development, healthcare and education kicked in and contributed to lower birth rates, but some developing countries implemented drastic measures, such as sterilisation campaigns in India and a one-child policy in China. Although fertility was declining in rich countries, population control really took off.

The goal of achieving global replacement-level fertility is within striking distance. According to UN estimates, the average woman today will have 2.36 children, reduced from 4.95 in the 1950s, and research at the Autonomous University of Madrid indicates that a global average of 2.1 children per woman could be achieved by 2050.

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